One channel's signups flatlined at zero

MTI-001 · graph metric-truth · 15 ledger records

What this run caught

No violationsFabricated citations, unapproved effects and tool violations are all zero

Adjudication

Agent verdict
instrument_failure
collector_dead
Answer key
instrument_failure
collector_dead
Outcome
correct
10 of 10 citations resolve

Graph execution

NodeKindStateRecordsToolsms
intake transform passed 1 0
map_terrain agent passed 1 6 281615
hypothesize agent passed 3 0 186033
gather_witnesses agent failed 3 28 3828261
witness_gate gate passed 1 0
adjudicate agent passed 1 0 56447
citation_gate gate passed 1 0
propose_remediation agent passed 1 1 159488
human_approval write human passed 1 0
write_back write tool passed 1 0
report transform passed 1 0

Witness ledger

idClaimSourceSupportsRefutes
e21 marts.signups (warehouse view `signups`) is defined as a straight pass-through of the channel column from events_daily with no channel-bucketing CASE/WHEN, WHERE filter, or attribution predicate. warehouse_query
urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:dbt,witnessgraph.marts.signups,PROD)
- h3
e22 staging.events_daily (warehouse view `events_daily`) derives channel by GROUP BY on the raw channel column with no re-mapping, merging, or attribution logic that could re-scope the affiliate bucket. warehouse_query
urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:dbt,witnessgraph.staging.events_daily,PROD
- h3
e23 metric_definition_history records no definition change for signups or events_daily, and no metric-definition change dated on or near day 14. warehouse_query
urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:dbt,witnessgraph.marts.signups,PROD)
- h3
e24 Across the full 36-day window the signups view contains only four channels, affiliate ends exactly at 2026-06-13, and no other channel's day-count or total volume increases to absorb affiliate's prior ~25-30 signups/day. warehouse_query
urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:dbt,witnessgraph.marts.signups,PROD)
- h3
e25 Affiliate rows are present in raw.channel_events_raw through 2026-06-13 and entirely absent from 2026-06-14 onward, with no other existing channel gaining affiliate's volume and no new channel label appearing after day 14. warehouse_query
urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:postgres,witnessgraph.raw.channel_events_r
h1 h3
e26 The only deploys near day 14 (D-0012 on day 12, D-0020 on day 20) ship unrelated product features, and none modifies channel attribution or the signups/events_daily definition on day 14. warehouse_query
urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:dbt,witnessgraph.marts.signups,PROD)
- h3
e11 In the warehouse the metric is derived, not measured: `signups` is `CREATE VIEW signups AS SELECT bucket_date AS day, channel, events AS signups FROM events_daily`, and `events_daily` is `SELECT date(occurred_at) AS bucket_date, channel, COUNT(*) AS events FROM channel_events_raw GROUP BY bucket_date, channel`, so an affiliate signup count is exactly the number of affiliate rows in channel_events_raw for that day, with no channel-remapping CASE/WHEN and no independent user-behaviour input. warehouse_query
urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:dbt,witnessgraph.marts.signups,PROD)
h1, h3 h2
e12 In channel_events_raw the affiliate collector's output stops dead at the day-13/14 boundary while every sibling collector keeps writing for three more weeks: affiliate n=299 spans 2026-06-01..2026-06-13 only, whereas organic (n=1039), paid_social (n=1033) and referral (n=1026) each span 2026-06-01..2026-07-06. warehouse_query
urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:postgres,witnessgraph.raw.channel_events_r
h1 -
e13 raw.web_sessions — an instrument independent of the per-channel collector — shows affiliate-referred demand did NOT collapse after day 14: affiliate sessions are 791 across days 1-13 (~60.8/day) and 1407 across days 14-36 (~61.2/day), all human (1407 of 1407 with is_automated=0), and the per-day series stays in the 41-75 range straight across the boundary (day 13=48, day 14=43, day 15=67) with zero bot sessions on every day. warehouse_query
urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:postgres,witnessgraph.raw.web_sessions,PRO
h1 h2
e14 The affiliate signups series is an abrupt cliff, not the decay or noisy near-zero a genuine behavioural loss produces: signups WHERE channel='affiliate' returns one row per day for 2026-06-01..2026-06-13 at a healthy 16-31/day (19,23,22,23,21,16,18,26,23,27,29,31,21) and then NO rows at all from 2026-06-14 onward. warehouse_query
urn:li:dataset:(urn:li:dataPlatform:dbt,witnessgraph.marts.signups,PROD)
h1, h3 h2

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